Causes of 2016 Aluminum Price Rise and Its Prospect
Time：2016-11-18 14:04:11 | Click：
From the view of aluminum supply and inventory level, the domestic aluminum ingot maintain a low level of inventory which affected by the supply side reform. In early August, the inventory reached a record low of 241,000 tons. After the impact of highway governance policies in september, most of the retention of Xinjiang aluminum ingot made inventory down. The Lower inventories are the main reason for the rise in aluminum prices.
From the view of aluminum cost itself, the bottom price of alumina rebounding and the rapid rise in coal prices make the cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to rise, promoting the recovery of aluminum prices. Among them, the cost of electricity is the largest proportion which plays a pivotal role. 80% domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is self-owned electricity, half of them is coal outsourcing, coal prices pushed up the electrolytic aluminum plant power generation costs. Another, alumina accounts for about 38% of the cost of aluminum, alumina price has risen 63.2% since January this year.
From the view of aluminum ingot consumer demand at downstream, electrolytic aluminum consumption demand has rebounded. Aluminum terminal consumption are construction, transportation and electrical and mechanical equipment as the main area. Among them, the first half growth for domestic real estate market was increased, as well as building aluminum demand. The monthly average operating rate of domestic aluminum enterprises is increased by 0.9 percentage points in first three quarters. In addition, the rail traffic aluminum and aluminum commercial vehicle market demand is still in the process of expansion. New energy vehicles market is driven by a series of favorable policies to promote the rapid development of new energy vehicles. As of now the new energy vehicles is accumulated 397,000, and it is expected to reach 460,000 by the end of 2016, it will become a new bright spot in aluminum consumption.
The future growth of electrolytic aluminum production will accelerate, although the cost of rising aluminum prices will form a certain support, but the terminal consumer demand is still uncertainty to rise cast a veil of mystery on aluminum price. In this case, it is expected that, in 2017, the main domestic aluminum electrolytic aluminum run 12000-16000 yuan / ton, the core interval is 13000-15000 yuan / ton.